Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.555924 9.830130 11.203783 12.791616 14.573198 16.507175 18.762095
2026-01-04 6.690456 8.414407 10.419096 12.909652 15.906976 19.383366 23.704918
2026-01-11 5.653369 7.542669 9.849862 12.850771 16.624114 21.182595 27.074039
2026-01-18 4.819841 6.788098 9.301093 12.707111 17.159642 22.734365 30.186637
2026-01-25 4.243255 6.265402 8.948853 12.716787 17.807820 24.376482 33.408153
2026-02-01 3.806421 5.870095 8.706991 12.819872 18.543958 26.129400 36.821383
2026-02-08 3.386600 5.444050 8.368717 12.738420 18.990255 27.482536 39.729267
2026-02-15 3.021552 5.054087 8.036885 12.621829 19.353416 28.709993 42.490742
2026-02-22 2.759037 4.788542 7.855898 12.695218 19.969447 30.292594 45.787999
2026-03-01 2.597184 4.661873 7.866843 13.043223 20.989565 32.476809 50.011175
2026-03-08 2.331083 4.337695 7.542369 12.848240 21.175496 33.448032 52.510632
2026-03-15 2.024525 3.913185 7.020859 12.300795 20.779140 33.524924 53.679098
2026-03-22 1.919074 3.829327 7.051668 12.644730 21.796461 35.779785 58.214362
2026-03-29 1.799431 3.708235 7.009856 12.864584 22.625706 37.782118 62.449975
2026-04-05 1.639640 3.495892 6.792255 12.769780 22.931310 38.973784 65.471511
2026-04-12 1.491088 3.288749 6.565427 12.639455 23.163432 40.049130 68.341233
2026-04-19 1.377422 3.137092 6.424304 12.644679 23.614857 41.482310 71.816912
2026-04-26 1.287813 3.023998 6.343746 12.748810 24.233843 43.203346 75.806416
2026-05-03 1.182668 2.867582 6.168606 12.667210 24.521588 44.384846 78.955876
2026-05-10 1.083387 2.712662 5.983068 12.551380 24.737408 45.446967 81.937127
2026-05-17 1.014166 2.615557 5.902196 12.624344 25.288481 47.086726 85.922429
2026-05-24 0.978880 2.590664 5.963217 12.970673 26.348021 49.627498 91.497073
2026-05-31 0.892570 2.439342 5.754189 12.776633 26.401469 50.430686 94.149867